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How to Boost Your Portfolio with Top Consumer Discretionary Stocks Set to Beat Earnings
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Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider MGM Resorts?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. MGM Resorts (MGM - Free Report) earns a #2 (Buy) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.66 a share, just 19 days from its upcoming earnings release on November 8, 2023.
MGM has an Earnings ESP figure of +6.03%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.66 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.62. MGM Resorts is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
MGM is one of just a large database of Consumer Discretionary stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Marriott International (MAR - Free Report) .
Slated to report earnings on November 2, 2023, Marriott International holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $2.18 a share 13 days from its next quarterly update.
For Marriott International, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.09 is +4.23%.
MGM and MAR's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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How to Boost Your Portfolio with Top Consumer Discretionary Stocks Set to Beat Earnings
Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider MGM Resorts?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. MGM Resorts (MGM - Free Report) earns a #2 (Buy) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.66 a share, just 19 days from its upcoming earnings release on November 8, 2023.
MGM has an Earnings ESP figure of +6.03%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.66 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.62. MGM Resorts is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
MGM is one of just a large database of Consumer Discretionary stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Marriott International (MAR - Free Report) .
Slated to report earnings on November 2, 2023, Marriott International holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $2.18 a share 13 days from its next quarterly update.
For Marriott International, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.09 is +4.23%.
MGM and MAR's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>